The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
Is the Budget sufficiently prudent? It probably is but at the cost of substantial under-provisioning for the many grand sounding schemes announced in it, says Nitin Desai.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The additional cash will now give the Centre more headroom for stimulating the economy.
In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday left the repo rate unchanged at 7.75 per cent, while the cash reserve ratio too is retained at 4 per cent.
"It's a welcome development, but we also feel it was long overdue... It's a recognition of the actions that the government has undertaken like GST, bankruptcy. We also need to keep all these things in perspective," Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
Among major Sensex movers, ITC rose the most by 1.70 per cent, Wipro by 1.43 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.36 per cent and Nestle India by 1.27 per cent. Other gainers included HCL Tech, Asian Paints and Reliance. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel traded with a loss of up to 0.82 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports sustained their gaining momentum and traded higher by 4.40 per cent and 4.37 per cent, respectively. BPCL, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and SBI were the other major gainers. On the other hand, HCL Tech, Infosys and Bajaj Auto traded in the negative zone with a loss of up to 1.54 per cent.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
Reserve Bank-sponsored professional forecasters on Monday scaled down India's growth projection to 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal from 5.7 per cent estimated earlier.
Nominating Das, the Banker magazine, which announced the award, said India's banks have faced a series of challenges, from non-performing loans to issues around fraud. Faced with these challenges, Shaktikanta Das has taken steps to bring banking in India up to standard via a restrained approach to governance.
It pointed out that farm loan waivers, combined with a potential stimulus which the government is mulling now, can result in a 1 percentage point slippage in fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit, as per the survey, deteriorated to 5.8 per cent of the GDP as compared to 3.4 per cent for 2018-19 estimated in the interim Budget.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
RBI said aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI left key policy rates unchanged and cut the GDP growth estimate for this fiscal to 5.5 per cent from 5.7 per cent.
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
The ongoing key reforms such as sops for manufacturing, easier labour laws, wooing FDI inflows and privatisation will help improve productivity and support long-term growth at 7.5-8 per cent levels, which if played out well, can help India contribute 15 per cent of global GDP growth by FY2026, says a report. According to a report pencilled by the India economist at UBS Securities, Tanvee Gupta Jain, the country has the lowest manufacturing costs among peers, even though China retains significant ecosystem advantages and despite that India and Vietnam appear most likely to benefit from a shift out of China.
A lot depends upon the composition of the monetary policy committee.
The 54-page document tabled in Parliament detailed how the Modi-government pull the economy from being counted among the most fragile-five in the world to being the fasted growing and the most attractive investment destination.
Higher valuation creation in companies beyond the top 100 has given the domestic markets a shot at a $4 trillion market capitalisation (mcap) - a club exclusive to three countries currently. On November 23, the mcap of all BSE-listed stocks finished at a new record of Rs 328.33 trillion ($3.94 trillion), despite the benchmark indices ending with losses. The mcap was propelled by gains in the broader market, including small and midcap stocks - a trend dominant this year.
'From a risk-return perspective, large-cap funds may generate lower-than-historical average returns in 2024, whereas mid-, and small-cap funds hardly have any upside left.'
Though the economy has steadily gained momentum and remained resilient since the second quarter of the current fiscal, the Omicron variant of coronavirus remains the major challenge along with rising inflation pressures, says the Reserve Bank in its second financial stability report. In the foreword to the report released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das notes that after the destructive second wave in April-May 2021, the growth outlook has progressively improved, though there are headwinds from global developments and more recently from the Omicron virus. A stronger and sustainable recovery hinges on the revival of private investment and shoring up private consumption, which unfortunately still remain below their pre-pandemic levels, he notes.
'The attempt to build a negative narrative about India's economic performance is disingenuous.' 'For the investors as well as the targeted beneficiaries of welfare schemes, the ground reality is very different,' argues Rajiv Kumar, vice-chairman, NITI Aayog.
In his first interview since becoming the chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian agrees the Narendra Modi government has taken some initial steps to revive private investments but says many more measures would be required to restore macroeconomic stability - reining in inflation and fiscal deficit - and bring the economy back on high-growth path. Subramanian, who has earlier worked in the research department of the International Monetary Fund, tells IMF Survey, an online magazine of IMF, that the Gujarat model is to be replicated across India but there also are macroeconomic problems at the national level that need to be addressed.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
It's time to step on the reforms accelerator.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
'Even if there is a third wave or a fourth wave, it is hard to see the economy will suffer like that (during the first wave).'
He added that the risks can increase if the Chinese slowdown gathers more speed.
Diversified entity ITC Ltd on Monday said it will demerge its hotels business by incorporating wholly-owned subsidiary ITC Hotels Ltd, paving way to attract appropriate investors and strategic partners. With the company's hotels business maturing over the years, the company said the vertical is ready to chart its own growth path as a separate entity in the fast-growing hospitality industry. "The Board of Directors of ITC Ltd at its meeting held on July 24, 2023, evaluated and discussed various alternative structures for the hotels business.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday described cryptocurrencies as "clear danger" and said that anything that derives value based on make believe, without any underlying, is just speculation under a sophisticated name. The government is in the process of finalising a consultation paper on cryptocurrencies after gathering inputs from various stakeholders and institutions. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been flagging concerns about cryptocurrencies, which are seen as a highly speculative asset.
